DAMASCUS,- All parties to Syria's conflict seem to have started playing all their cards to achieve gains to enhance their stances prior to engaging in a decisive dialogue in the international conference, which is expected to be held in Geneva in mid June to draw up the blueprints of a political solution to the Syrian crisis, analysts said.The planned conference, which is set to be attended by representatives from the Syrian government and the opposition groups, will tackle the recent U.S.-Russian efforts to revive political options for resolving the long-standing stalemate in the conflict-stricken country.
The conference aims at reviving a previous meeting held in June 2012 in Geneva and sponsored also by the two major powers, the U.S. and Russia.
However, Last year's conference called for immediate ceasefire between Syrian fighting parties and launching inter-Syrian dialogue for a transitional government, the outcome of the meeting was fruitless as it couldn't be implemented on the ground.
According to local analysts, the West was betting on the armed rebels' ability to tip the balance and end the game in their favor without having to negotiate with the administration of President Bashar al-Assad.
While the long-awaited U.S.-Russian understanding was hailed by the international community, as all stakeholders now eye the upcoming conference as the last-ditch attempt to give a hand to bring an end the political conflict in Syria, both the government of President Bashar al-Assad and several opposition groups showed some hesitation over participation in the conference before they finally agreed to attend the conference "in principle."
ASSAD ADMINISTRATION'S EFFORTS FOR ACHIEVING TERRITORIAL GAINS
Maher Morhej, a political expert and head of Syria's Youth Party, said that the time now is in favor of the Syrian army, adding that delaying Geneva conference would play in the hands of the Syrian troops because they are making strides in fighting the rebels.
The army's victories would surely boost Assad's position in the upcoming negotiations, Morhej told Xinhua.
The Syrian administration has repeatedly said that fighting what they call "terrorism" in the country is walking side by side with the efforts for a political solution to end the conflict. The government has labeled the rebels as terrorists, especially after the recent merger between the al-Qaida in Iraq and the radical Nusra Front in Syria last month.
The Nusra fighters make out 90 percent of the rebel groups on ground, Hmaidi al-Abdullah, a political analyst, told Xinhua.
The Syrian army has made notable advancement recently, storming the main rebel stronghold in the central strategic city of al- Qussair with a huge fire power and cutting the rebels' supply lines from neighboring Lebanon.
In his latest interview couple of weeks ago, Assad stressed his administration's readiness to embark on a dialogue "with any party desirous of dialogue."
He said that when the armed groups lay down their weapons and come forward to the political dialogue, "we would have no problem. "
"No state would negotiate with terrorists," he stressed.
Assad further questioned the rebel's ability to implement a ceasefire, which could place Syria on the track of political settlement.
"They are not a single entity. They are different groups and bands. They are a mixture and each group has its local leader," he said.
"We have no other option but to win," Assad said in another interview.
OPPOSITOIN'S EFFORTS TO ASCENT UP THE GREASY POLE
Despite their huge fissures, the Syrian opposition groups have been taking pains to unify and broaden their ranks in a bid to strengthen their stance in the forthcoming negotiations.
The Syrian National Coalition (SNC), the largest opposition umbrella in exile, has been convening in the Turkish city of Istanbul since May 23 to widen its participants and determine delegate to the conference. So far, the information coming from Istanbul refers that there are deep differences between liberals and Islamists within the SNC.
The SNC has called on its western backers to quickly funnel weapons to the armed rebels on ground also in a bid to strengthen position ahead of negotiations.
Analysts said even if the exiled opposition managed to put its differences aside and succeeded in bridging the gap with the government in Syria, it would still have to deal with the fact that they have no real weight on ground, especially among the Nusra Front fighters, who declared their desire to establish an Islamic emirate in Syria and Iraq.
WEST'S GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY IN FAVOR OF OPPOSITION
The western powers have thrown all of their support to push the opposition to form a united front that could form a suitable alternative to the current administration in Syria.
The European Union (EU) has emerged, since the first day of the Syrian conflict, as main backer to the anti-Assad groups, saving no opportunity to impose whatever deemed necessary to undermine Assad's power and embolden the rebels to achieve victory.
Their latest bid to encourage the rebels ahead of the Geneva II meeting was lifting the arms embargo on the Syrian opposition. The EU decided Monday to lift the arms embargo on Syria's opposition after France and Britain threw all their weight behind the ban- lift during marathon negotiations in Brussels.
William Hague, Britain's foreign secretary, defended the move as "necessary and right" to reinforce international efforts to reach a diplomatic solution in Syria and threatened to use this wild card against Assad if he refuses to "negotiate seriously."
He said lifting the ban was important to send a clear signal to Assad administration that "it has to negotiate seriously, and that all options remain on the table if it refuses to do so." The Syrian Foreign Ministry on Tuesday slammed the EU latest decision as "undermining all international efforts to solve the Syrian crisis politically."
Afif Dallah, a political analyst, told Xinhua that the EU's latest step was not new "because weapons have been flowing illegally to the armed rebels since the beginning of the conflict from those countries."
The expert pointed out that the decision is "a political and media blackmailing and another serious attempt to create pressure cards on the Syrian leadership before the planned conference."
They want to use this decision to obtain concessions from the Syrian administration, he said.
The decision also aims to boost the morale of the armed rebels on ground after the defeats they have taken by the hands of the Syrian army, he added.
Essam Khalil, a Syrian lawmaker, also echoed Dallah's remarks that the decision aims to build up more pressure on Assad and to give the rebels a push forward.
The EU decision "constitutes a means to push terrorism toward more radicalization and to escalate the violence against the Syrians," Khalil told Xinhua.
He also slammed the recent illegal visit by U.S. senator, John McCain, to the rebels in northern Syria, saying that the visit " represents a dangerous indicator about America's lack of credibility toward the efforts to politically solve the Syrian crisis."
McCain has entered Syria earlier this week and met with rebel leaders in northern Syria, during which the rebels asked the republican senator for a U.S. strikes against posts of the Syrian army and the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group, which is accused of helping the Syrian army in their battles in central Syria.
Aside from arming the rebels' issue, the West has also reiterated talks about Syria's chemical weapons through leaks to media outlets, a move that was also deemed as aiming to add more pressure.
The French's Le Monde newspaper reported that the Syrian forces loyal to al-Assad were accused of using chemical arms in their conflict with the opposition forces.
"Reporters from Le Monde witnessed this on several days in a row in this district, on the outskirts of Damascus, which the rebels entered in January," Le Monde wrote.
Analysts said the West aim behind nurturing fears of Syria's alleged chemical weapons is to further pressure the government in Syria and to set the stage for foreign intervention in case it decided to get involved in militarily toppling the Assad regime.
SYRIAN GOV'T ALLIES' STANCE TOWARD WEST'S TACTICS
As the Western powers have chosen to publicly legitimize arming the Syrian rebels, Russia, Syria's main international ally, said it would also send weapons to the government in Syria.
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Tuesday that no one can blame Russia for sending weapons to Syria, adding that these weapons are bound to the legal authorities in the country.
Ryabkov said that sending Russian long-range S-300 anti- aircraft missiles to Syria constitutes "a stability factor" and prevents foreign forces from interfering in the country.
Ryabkov said that giving the missiles to Syria will help prevent "hotheads from escalating the conflict to the international scale."
Iran, Syria's main regional ally, also indulged itself in last- minute political efforts on Syria's issue and hosted on Wednesday a conference of Friends of Syria the participation of representatives from 40 countries to find a political solution to the crisis in Syria.
Addressing the opening ceremony of the meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said that this conference constitutes an important step for resolving the crisis in Syria, noting that the previous Iranian initiative in this regard wasn't implemented due to foreign interference.
He warned that what is happening in Syria will destabilize the region and the world, and that violence and delaying the political solution isn't in any country's interest.
Despite the tit for tat political rambling, analysts believe that Geneva II meeting will be held due to the American-Russian agreement, adding that it's going to be the major step in the road toward settlement in Syria.
